Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement

摘要

We develop a model to capture state-of-knowledge, as well as aleatory, uncertainties associated with off-shore wind farm technologies, processes and environments. Our goal is to better understand systemic technology risks and support investment decisions for effective, efficient risk management. Typical epistemic uncertainties present in the offshore wind context are articulated. A protocol for eliciting expert judgment to quantify variables representing epistemic uncertainties and other relevant model parameters is presented. We discuss the elicitation of judgments from an expert panel of energy company technical specialists and show an application of our model to a generic new design offshore wind farm.